Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.007314 0.008246 0.009265 0.010466 0.011844 0.013380 0.015226
2024-10-06 0.005756 0.006996 0.008473 0.010371 0.012758 0.015683 0.019564
2024-10-13 0.005173 0.006615 0.008432 0.010912 0.014240 0.018600 0.024820
2024-10-20 0.004421 0.005874 0.007788 0.010523 0.014385 0.019720 0.027784
2024-10-27 0.003889 0.005339 0.007320 0.010267 0.014614 0.020906 0.030919
2024-11-03 0.003553 0.005023 0.007101 0.010308 0.015232 0.022677 0.035115
2024-11-10 0.003380 0.004914 0.007153 0.010731 0.016446 0.025463 0.041264
2024-11-17 0.003084 0.004589 0.006847 0.010563 0.016701 0.026745 0.045092
2024-11-24 0.002876 0.004377 0.006686 0.010598 0.017270 0.028585 0.050120
2024-12-01 0.002642 0.004100 0.006394 0.010382 0.017383 0.029641 0.053853
2024-12-08 0.002524 0.003996 0.006369 0.010604 0.018266 0.032145 0.060662
2024-12-15 0.002373 0.003826 0.006217 0.010587 0.018713 0.033893 0.066235
2024-12-22 0.002148 0.003519 0.005819 0.010113 0.018299 0.034027 0.068675
2024-12-29 0.002009 0.003350 0.005646 0.010034 0.018629 0.035665 0.074612
2025-01-05 0.001977 0.003362 0.005790 0.010554 0.020183 0.039962 0.087173
2025-01-12 0.001817 0.003135 0.005482 0.010180 0.019892 0.040372 0.090841
2025-01-19 0.001690 0.002957 0.005252 0.009933 0.019833 0.041267 0.095823
2025-01-26 0.001612 0.002863 0.005169 0.009972 0.020382 0.043576 0.104733
2025-02-02 0.001585 0.002862 0.005263 0.010380 0.021780 0.048013 0.120017
2025-02-09 0.001493 0.002731 0.005093 0.010219 0.021883 0.049410 0.127395
2025-02-16 0.001430 0.002651 0.005018 0.010252 0.022435 0.051970 0.138535
2025-02-23 0.001347 0.002525 0.004841 0.010044 0.022393 0.053034 0.145527
2025-03-02 0.001312 0.002493 0.004853 0.010258 0.023390 0.056902 0.161772